There is still a distinct possibility of escalation in Ukraine. policymakers navigate them? Building on previous crisis simulations that evaluated emergent risks in contemporary great power competition, this paper explores how the current conflict could expand. What are the escalation risks in a protracted Ukrainian conflict and how should U.S. 4 In this manner, the conflict is an acute episode in the larger rivalry between the United States/NATO and Russia, creating escalation risks beyond the sovereign borders of Ukraine. 3 The West continues to send weapons and intelligence to halt the Russian invasion. ![]() 2 Moscow pursues these objectives with military force in Ukraine, nuclear blackmail, and economic coercion. 1 Russian major general Rustam Minnekaev indicated that the second phase of Russia’s “special military operation” is to establish a land corridor from the Donbas to the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transdniestria in Moldova. The Kremlin has stated its war aims involve limiting Kyiv from becoming part of a larger transatlantic economic and security block. The war in Ukraine is not confined to the country’s borders. Each installment will review the results of a wargame or crisis simulation and provide additional statistical insights into how players approached decisionmaking consistent with modern military operations and strategy. This series uses a combination of traditional strategic studies methods and data science-including survey and natural experiments-alongside crisis simulations and wargames to anticipate how strategic competition is evolving. This paper introduces the On Future War series. Analyzing how individuals and teams approached decisionmaking provides insights on rethinking escalation models in the twenty-first century and taking advantage of new concepts and capabilities to better support signaling during a crisis. As the conflict crossed a key threshold and risked becoming a regional war, most participants found a natural pull to escalate in each scenario despite limited expectations of achieving a position of competitive advantage. This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events: (1) a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in southeast Poland, and (2) Russian use of chemical weapons along the Polish border while simultaneously mobilizing to threaten the Baltics. The national security community will need to develop tools and techniques for assessing competition, escalation tendencies, and risk attitudes among foreign leaders that combine old concepts from political psychology with new capabilities afforded by data science and natural language processing.īased on three crisis simulations held in late March 2022 with think tank fellows, military planners, and congressional staffers, The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will likely struggle to address escalation vectors almost certain to push the current war in Ukraine beyond the country’s borders.The longer a conflict such as Ukraine lasts, the less likely it will be confined to one state.There will be more crises like Ukraine that pull in great powers, spark escalation risks based on fear and uncertainty, and test the viability of integrated deterrence. ![]() Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses.Building Sustainable and Inclusive Democracy.Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations.Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts.Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation.Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation.Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy.
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